This week I had the opportunity to trade a few questions about the upcoming game against Michigan with Ace from The Wolverine Blog. I asked him about the dual-quarterback situation, the status of Tate’s shoulder, and the state of this rivalry in college football. Ace has his questions for me up over on his site. Below, my questions are in bold.
MSU and Michigan had a very similar storyline coming into this year as both schools came into the season with very young quarterbacks competing to take the reins of the offense. Both teams have used two quarterbacks in pretty much every game to varying degrees. But it seems as though the Spartan faithful are completely restless with the dual QB situation, which is certainly not the case in Ann Arbor. What are your thoughts on the similarities and differences of our scenarios?
The MSU quarterback situation hasn't been in full focus all season.
The biggest difference, in my mind, between the two scenarios is this: Cousins and Nichol are vying for a starting job, and, although Nichol is more mobile, they are still two somewhat similar quarterbacks. With Michigan, Forcier and Robinson bring two completely different skill sets to the table, and everybody knows that Forcier is the starter and the guy who will get the lion’s share of the snaps.
For MSU, I think the two-QB system is hurting them. Cousins and Nichol both know that one bad game — or even a bad possession — could mean riding the pine the rest of the season. Forcier and Robinson both know their role on the team, and so far have been happy to cede a little playing time to allow Michigan’s offense to show some different looks. I guess I see the dual QB situations in two different ways: MSU’s is an ongoing competition, while Michigan’s is an added wrinkle to Rich Rodriguez’s offense.
The rest of the interview after the jump.
Defense has been a problem for both Michigan State and the University of Michigan this season. You guys gave up 467 yards and 33 points to Indiana this past weekend. How do you see the Michigan defense matching up against a Spartan aerial attack that has been one of highlights of this MSU team?
It's never a good sign when your defense gives up 33 to the Hoosiers. (AP Photo/Tony Ding)
In all honesty, not very well. It’s never good when your coach announces that one of your starting cornerback spots is now an open competition after four games, and that’s the case with Michigan. It’s tough to overstate how good Donovan Warren has been at corner for the Wolverines, but it’s also tough to overstate just how bad the situation has been across from him, where sophomore Boubacar Cissoko was finally benched in favor of redshirt freshman J.T. Floyd (who was last seen getting torched in garbage time against Western Michigan).
Another issue has been Michigan’s pass rush: the team has only four sacks in four games. The Wolverines are very undersized up front, and nobody has stepped up enough to keep teams from double- and triple-teaming Brandon Graham, the only player who consistently pressures the passer.
The key for MSU here is to avoid turning the ball over. If Cousins and Nichol can avoid making dumb plays, they should be able to put up big numbers against this defense.
I’ll admit the fact that both Denard Robinson and Tate Forcier are true freshmen has given me short but intense nightmares as this season has progressed. What weaknesses to these guys have?
Michigan's freshman quarterbacks Tate Forcier (5) and Denard Robinson (16)
With Robinson, it’s quite simple: he’s just not a very accurate passer right now. Against Eastern Michigan, he made great reads on two passes but was picked off both times because he just underthrew the ball. He’s a truly electrifying runner, but just does not have passing skills right now to be an every-down quarterback.
As for Forcier, he gets himself in trouble when he tries to do too much. His interception against Indiana is a perfect example of this: he tried to get off a desperation pass to avoid a sack and ended up throwing a duck directly into the arms of a defensive lineman. He has also fumbled a couple times in the backfield while scrambling to avoid pressure, but Michigan has been lucky to pounce on the ball when that has happened thus far.
To a lesser extent, both guys have left some yards on the table with their decision-making on the zone read. Often, they are able to make up for their mistakes because of their athleticism, but with the ability of our running backs to make big plays, it would be nice to see them defer a little more to handing the ball off. However, this is nit-picky, to say the least, and negated a lot by both players’ athleticism.
What’s the deal with Forcier’s shoulder? Coach Rodriguez says that he’ll play, but if we run a hypothetical here and say Forcier is either a) more injured than anyone is letting on, or b) gets hammered early in the first quarter, how confident are you in Robinson’s ability to run the offense? No, not just run, but run the offense.
My (completely uneducated) guess is that Forcier has a mild AC Joint sprain in his shoulder. It’s the type of injury that can be played through as long as you can deal with pain, so I fully expect Michigan to give Forcier a cortisone shot and send him out there.
However, if it comes down to playing Robinson, I’ll be very concerned about the offense’s ability to consistently move the ball. I went over this in detail in a post I put up yesterday, but the gist of it is this: Michigan’s offense is very inconsistent when Robinson is the quarterback, and the big plays he makes that result in scores are often offset by turnovers. To be blunt, if Robinson is forced into full-time duty, MSU becomes the clear favorite in this game. The defense doesn’t afford the Wolverines much room for error, and at this point Robinson is too error-prone for Michigan to win without the defense playing better than they have all year (Western Michigan notwithstanding).
Saturday’s game will be in the noon time slot on ABC ESPN Big Ten Network. It’s not exactly the national coverage that this game has enjoyed in the past. What was your reaction when you heard that the game would be a noon kickoff on BTN, and what do you think it says about the perception of this rivalry outside the state of Michigan?
On one hand, this is a coup for the BTN — they’ve never had a game of this profile on the network. However, it does say a lot about the national perception of the Big Ten as a whole, and the rivalry itself, that this game is not going to be on ABC/ESPN. The perception isn’t exactly unfair — the Big Ten has been down, Michigan had a horrible year in 2008, and MSU is 1-3 so far this year — but it’s still disappointing that a rivalry game of this magnitude doesn’t garner national attention.
This game features two of the top three offenses in the conference right now. Over/under 70 points scored in this game?
If Forcier plays, I’ll take the over, although it should be close. If Robinson and Sheridan (and I shuddered when I typed “Sheridan”) are the guys taking snaps for Michigan, I’ll go with the under. I really think this game entirely comes down to the health of Tate Forcier. If he plays, I expect Michigan to win in a shootout. If he doesn’t, I think State will outgun Michigan. Since I think Forcier will be ready to go on Saturday, here’s my official prediction: Michigan 38, Michigan State 34.
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