Michigan State at Illinois
Illinois record: 1-3 (0-2 Big Ten)
Last Game: Lost to Penn State 35-17
Record vs. MSU: MSU leads the series 23-17-2. MSU is 11-9-1 on the road vs. the Illini
Game Time: Noon
Conference: Big Ten
TV/Radio: Big Ten Network
Weather: Showers, high of 51 degrees, should be in the mid-40s for tailgate so be sure to bundle up
Line: Michigan State favored by 5
What You Need To Know: I think we know the storyline at work here for Illinois. That’s because it was our storyline last week.
Team was supposed to be good, finds out they’re not so good, has a few tough losses to some otherwise pretty decent teams, fan base is in turmoil, they have their backs against the wall, come into an emotional game, and pull off the upset.
Okay, that last part isn’t exactly true, because Michigan was the underdog in the game last weekend. But you get the point.
Ron Zook decided to bench Juice Williams for Saturday's game against Michigan State.
It will be homecoming when the Illini take on the Spartans this weekend, so it should be a full house at Memorial Stadium. Adding fuel to the fire, Ron Zook decided to bench Juice Williams in favor of junior quarterback Eddie McGee. McGee has seen time in all four games this season (I’m getting mixed stats on that, it might actually only be three games), going 19-29 passing with 1 TD and 2 INTs. Talking Heads at the Big Ten Network last night said McGee is a faster runner and is more accurate in the mid-range throws that Juice.
The benching of Juice is no small matter down in Champaign. From Hail to the Orange:
This all comes after the game in which Juice overtook Kurt Kitner as the school’s all time offensive leader. Juice is a four-year starter, senior QB, that once led his team to the Rose Bowl, and only last year threw for over 3,000 yards, leading the conference in passing yards.
From what I can pick up, there’s a lot of pieces at play here. Zook is considered a players coach, and is very loyal to his athletes, sometimes to a fault. Juice was the first serious blue-chip recruit that committed to Zook when the Illini were in the cellar of the Big Ten. Juice’s commitment help the Illini bring in many other top recruits. Point is, Juice Williams has been the face of this program for the past four years.
Talk is starting to circulate that Zook could be out after this year, especially if the losing ways continue. This move really seems to be a desperate move by a desperate coach who knows his job is on the line. I’m not going to pretend that I know enough about the Illini do make an informed judgement that should be seriously listened to, but for what it’s worth, this move strikes me as being a bit hasty. I don’t know what kind of player Eddie McGee really is, but I do know that Juice Williams was the reason the Illini were able to upset Ohio State and go to the Rose Bowl in 2007. The offense has certainly struggled, there’s no doubt about that. The Illini defense is at the bottom of the Big Ten, and benching your #1 quarterback isn’t going to fix that problem. There are systemic problems at Illinois right now that are not fixed by one guy (and Zook noted this in his press conference). They’re trying to shake things up, but sometimes when you shake something fragile, it gets broken.
When MSU is on Offense: Michigan State continues to lead the conference in passing offense, throwing for over 300 yards per game and putting up a league-high 13 TDs. Illinois, meanwhile has the #7 passing defense in the conference. They’re the only defense in the Big Ten that has recorded fewer interceptions than Michigan State (MSU has 3 so far, Illinois only has 2). The inability to force turnovers has been an achilles heel for MSU, and we saw Michigan State give up 21 points to Wisconsin by giving away the football. Hopefully that won’t be an issue against the Illini.
The Zookers are giving up 234 yards/game through the air, but gave up only 82 yards against Ohio State (although OSU is at the bottom of the heap for passing offense) and 175 yards to Penn State (the Lions are #5 in passing in the conference). I’m giving the edge to the Spartans here. Sure, Illinois has been improving, but they’re in the same clubhouse as Wisconsin and Michigan, two teams against whom we were able to effectively throw the ball.
Larry Caper was victorious against Michigan, but the running game has been slow to get going.
In contrast to the passing game, the MSU rushing attack has taken it’s sweet time getting established. We rushed for roughly 100 yards against Central Michigan, Notre Dame and Wisconsin before going off for 195 yards against the Wolvies. In reality, it was a team effort that got the job done on the ground, as Glenn Winston only averaged 1.9 YPC against Michigan and Larry Caper averaged 3.0 yards per carry. Factor in contributions from Cousins and Nichol and the whole was greater than the sum of the Forcier (or something dorky like that).
The Illinois rushing defense is at the bottom of the conference, giving up 5.14 yards per carry. This obviously bodes well for Michigan as Illinois is worse than both Wisconsin (who shut us down running the ball) and Michigan (who, well, didn’t). From what we’ve seen so far, just getting a semblance of a running game is hugely important for this offense. We pretty much know we’re going to be able to pass the ball, but establishing a little bit of a run allows us to more effectively use play action and take pressure off of Cousins and Nichol who have shown a penchant for throwing bad interceptions when under pressure.
When MSU is on Defense: Here’s a stat for you: 12. While the rest of the Big Ten conference has averaged 5.8 throwing TDs given up through the air, Michigan State has allowed opponents to score 12 TDs passing. Ouch. Add to that the fact that Michigan State is last in the conference turnovers gained (5) and, well you get the picture. So that’s the bad news. The good news?
Illinois QB Eddie McGee will line up against the Michigan State defense.
The good news is that Illinois has struggled throwing the ball all season. They have just 2 TDs passing (with 6 interceptions). Juice Williams has just 519 yards passing so far this season, behind every other starting quarterback in the league, including the ones that split snaps.
Sure, he’s a run threat, but the only team he’s kinda burned this year has been Penn State, when he put up 58 yards, but it took him 20 attempts to do it (2.9 YPC). RB Jason Ford is averaging 9 yards a carry, but he only sees the ball about 5 times per game. Yes, their rushing offense is rated #4 in the Big Ten, but take away the 382 yards they put up against lowly Illinois State, and they would rank just above Minnesota at the bottom of the conference.
For all the woes the Spartan secondary has had, the rushing defense has been surprisingly…good. I say surprisingly not because we expected them to be bad, we thought the entire defense was going to be pretty good before the season started. But then the Central Michigan fiasco happened, and we all said the defense was, in fact, terrible (run defense included). What really happened was that we just didn’t play any really good run teams. Yes, we got lit up by Wisconsin, but they’re a pretty darn good run team. When we match up against a team that averages 107 yards per game when you take out the D-IAA outlier, I think we match up pretty well.
Start trash talking if: The Spartans are able to run the football. How our passing game has managed to be so good continues to baffle me at times simply because our rushing game has done very little to help out. Also, if we get the same defense that we had against the Wolverines, we should be able to control the pace of game.
Scream in horror if: Eddie McGee is vastly more successful running the offense than Juice was the last four games. Juice was a four-year starter, so he knows the offense inside and out. McGee is more of an unknown quantity. Also keep an eye on the emotion of the game. This is a team with their backs against the wall, they have an embattled coach and this game has all the trappings of an upset. We’ve seen that MSU has a propensity to throw turnovers at bad moments in the game (end of ND game, first drive of MICH game). If we lose the turnover battle, it could spell disaster for State.
The Last Word: “If we’re even, we’re leavin’.” That’s what coach Dantonio said at his Tuesday press conference. With a victory, MSU can leave Champaign even on the year at 3-3. In my Big Ten preseason preview, I had Michigan State at 4-2 after the Illinois game, so we would only be one game off of my preseason prediction. All things considered, I’d say that would be pretty good. If we can get the defense that we had in the first 55 minutes of the Michigan game, I can see us beating a suspect Iowa team in Spartan Stadium and going 5-1 to end the season. That’s a pretty bold statement, but very doable if this team continues to come together. Remember 8-4 got Iowa to a New Year’s Day bowl game after going, you guessed it, 3-3 to start the first half of the season last year. Keep the faith, this is still a good football team. Final score, 31-21 MSU.
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