Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans
Iowa record: 7-0 (3-0 Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs. Wisconsin 20-10
Record vs. MSU: Iowa leads the series 20-18-2. MSU is 10-8-1 at home against the Hawkeyes
Game Time: 7 PM, under the lights baby!
Conference: Big Ten
TV/Radio: Big Ten Network
Weather: Overcast with a 50% chance of rain, winds coming out of the west at 5-10 mph. Wear your base layer, plus a few layers on top of that. Rain gear is definitely a good idea. The last thing you want is to be wet and cold sitting in the stands at night.
Line: Iowa is favored by 2
What You Need To Know: Revenge will no doubt be on the mind of the Hawkeyes after last season, when the Spartans defeated Iowa 16-13 in East Lansing.
After getting down early 13-0 early in the game, Iowa fought back and dominated the Spartans at the point of attack in the second half. Hawkeye tailback Shonn Greene ran all over the Spartans for 157 yards, and Iowa was facing a 4th and long deep in MSU territory with an opportunity to kick a field goal to tie the game. Averaging 5.2 yards per carry and effectively driving toward the end zone, Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz made the call to go for it on 4th down. But Spartan linebacker Adam Decker was able to hit Greene, who was running off tackle, behind the line of scrimmage to effectively end the game. From there, all the Spartans had to do was kneel on the football and put another notch in the win column.
This season, Iowa has established that they are the team to beat in the Big Ten, undefeated on the season and having defeated both Wisconsin and Penn State. But one can hardly call Iowa’s undefeated record convincing. To open the season, the Hawks trailed I-AA Northern Iowa until 13 minutes to go in the game. They then rattled off three victories against Iowa State, Arizona and Penn State (in Happy Valley, no less). But then they let Arkansas State hang around until two minutes to go in the game, when the Hawkeyes had to recover an onside kick to seal the victory 24-21. One week later, Iowa did everything they could to give away a game against a hapless Michigan squad, and probably would have been successful if not for Michigan doing everything they could (including 5 turnovers) to give the game right back to the Hawkeyes. Last week against Wisconsin, Iowa trailed early but won 20-10.
No doubt, there’s two sides to this story. One side, that I have presented above, is that of a schizophrenic football team that has seemingly played to the level of their competition, something we are accustomed to seeing in East Lansing after the Bobby Williams and JLS era. The other side, however, is that of a resilient team that has done nothing more than get the job done winning football games, mostly on the shoulders of a nasty and complex defense.
If there is a storyline that has permeated the Big Ten this season, it has been teams waiting to be exposed. As I mentioned in my recap after the Northwestern game:
Penn State was exposed early in week 4, falling to the Iowa Hawkeyes at home after a weak non-conference schedule. In week 5, Michigan was exposed by our Spartans after the Wolverines opened the season 4-0. Wisconsin was exposed on the road in week 6 when they took on the Ohio State Buckeyes, and then just this past weekend the Buckeyes were exposed on the road at Purdue.
Could this be the week in which Iowa gets exposed? Perhaps. Let’s take a look at the matchups.
When MSU is on Offense: This game is truly going to test the legitimacy of the Michigan State passing game. Iowa has one of the best defenses in the conference. They bring a lot of different looks at the point of attack, and that type of confusion can create havoc for youthful quarterbacks. A key thing to look out for will be how well our quarterbacks pick up the defensive coverage at the line of scrimmage.
MSU has the #3 scoring offense (29.3 PPG) in the Big Ten. Iowa’s scoring defense? Yep, that’s right, #3 at 15 PPG. The Spartans still have the leading pass offense in the conference, but Iowa is a solid pass defense team, having given up just 5 passing TDs so far this season. They’re also the most opportunistic defense at creating interceptions in the Big Ten with 15 INTs this season.
Partly, the good news is that overall the Hawkeyes haven’t played a slew of good passing teams. So even though they’re giving up just 167 yards per game through the air, the average ranking for pass offense for their opponents has been just 64th nationally.
The bad news is that the best passing offense that Iowa has faced this season, Arizona, had the biggest discrepancy in average YPG compared to the yardage they put up through the air against the Hawks, 154 yards less to be exact. MSU will be the best passing team that Iowa has faced all season. Good or bad thing? We’ll find out on Saturday. Oddly, the only team to perform better than their season average was Arkansas State, the worst passing offense Iowa faced all season.
It’s no secret that Michigan State runs the ball to pass the ball, for better or for worse. Even when we aren’t running the ball effectively, we will still continue to run the ball. MSU is #6 in rush offense with 136 yards per game. While it took some time for the rushing game to get going, we’ve been able to build some consistency since the Michigan game. After Glenn Winston went down with an ACL injury, Edwin “Rock” Baker stepped up and had a solid performance against Northwestern. Getting both him and Larry Caper will be key if we’re going to beat Iowa.
It’s tough for me to get a good bead on this matchup. Normally, I’d have a little more faith in our rushing game being able to at least establish enough of a run to open up the passing game. But have you seen the defensive looks from the Hawkeyes? They’re scary. Like, really scary. They’re super fast, have crazy stunts and can create havoc for even the most experience quarterbacks. Because of that, I’m giving the nod here to Iowa.
When MSU is on Defense: For as good as Iowa’s defense has been, their offense has left quite a bit to be desired. In no major category (scoring, rush offense and pass offense) are the Hawkeyes in the top half of the league. They’re averaging just 24.9 points per game, good for eighth in the conference. The Spartans, meanwhile, are holding opponents to 21 points per game, fourth in the conference.
I’d like to say that our defense should be able to shut down the Iowa running game. But freshman running back Adam Robinson has been a consistent force for Iowa, averaging 74 yards per game, and averages 82 yards per game on the road. However, the last two games the Iowa Hawkeyes have been held to less than 100 yards rushing.
If there’s one thing Iowa fans have loved doing this year, it’s been getting on the case of quarterback Ricki Lake Ricky Stanzi. I’m sorry, really? Ricky? I have a cousin named Nicholas. We called him Nicky when he was younger. But around the time that he started high school, we began to call him Nick. I’m just saying, Ricky is a kids name. Drop the “y” dude.
Anyway, Stanzi’s been hit or miss throughout the season. A lot of fans think that Iowa has won seven games despite Stanzi, not because of him. He has 11 TDs on the season, but also has 8 interceptions. He completed 79% of this throws against the Badgers, and just 42% against Penn State. Derrell Johnson-Koulianos leads Iowa receivers with 16 yards per catch, but has noticeably fewer receptions than other receivers among the top of the conference. He also only has one TD catch so far this season.
Overall, the Hawks have the #6 passing offense in the Big Ten at 230 yards per game. We all know how the MSU secondary has been this year. Do we really need to go over this? Okay, fine. Despite early struggles, we have seen some improvement from the secondary. Chris L. Rucker and Danny Fortener have led the bend-but-don’t-break defense we’ve seen since the Michigan game. Despite giving up nearly 300 yards through the air to Northwestern, the defense only gave up 14 points.
I see this matchup narrowly tipping in MUS’s favor. The MSU defense line has been able to get pressure to opposing team’s quarterbacks and disrupt the running game. When you can get pressure from the front line, you force the quarterback to deliver the ball quicker than he wants to, and that leads to incomplete passes and interceptions. If we can continue this trend against Iowa, we should have an opportunity to win this game.
Start trash talking if: We have more points on the board than they do when the clock runs out. Seriously, this team has come back from behind in all but two of their games this season. Considering that MSU doesn’t have the greatest track record closing out games…well, you get the idea.
Scream in horror if: The quarterback (either Cousins or Nichol) can’t get rid of the football. One might think this would be a good time for Nichol to see significant time, since he’s shown an ability to make plays scrambling out of the pocket. Although, his decision making and his accuracy hasn’t been quite at the level of Cousins. The defensive line for Iowa could completely disrupt the rhythm of the MSU offense in ways that we haven’t seen yet.
The Last Word: I’m completely torn on this game. Part of me says it’s time for Iowa to be exposed. Part of me says the Iowa defense is the best MSU will see all season and is scary good. Part of me says MSU has turned a corner. Part of me says despite their shortcomings, you have to give credit to a team that wins games, even if they are ugly wins at times. I think this game is going to come down to turnovers. If MSU can avoid turnovers, we can pull off the upset. But Iowa is the best team in the conference in turnover margin. I say Iowa wins in a close, defensive battle, 21-17.
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