Know Thy Enemy – Michigan

Michigan record: 4-0 (1-0 Big Ten)
Last Game: Defeated Indiana 36-33
Record vs. MSU: Michigan leads the series 67-29-5.  MSU is 10-19-2 in East Lansing vs. Michigan
Game Time: Noon
Conference: Big Ten

TV/Radio: Big Ten Network
Weather: Showers, high of 51 degrees, should be in the mid-40s for tailgate so be sure to bundle up
Line: Michigan State favored by 2

U-M Offensive Starters: 4 seniors, 2 juniors, 4 sophomores, 1 freshman
U-M Defensive Starters: 2 seniors, 4 juniors, 4 sophomores, 1 freshman

Stat Leaders:

PASSING	ATT	COMP	YDS	TD
T. Forcier	87	54	671	7

RUSHING	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD
C. Brown	38	321	8.4	3
D. Robinson	29	179	6.2	3

RECEIVING	REC	YDS	AVG	TD
M. Odoms	9	97	10.8	1
K. Koger	8	106	13.3	2

TACKLES	UT	AT	TOT	TFL-YDS
O. Ezeh	12	22	34	2.5-4

Offensive/Defensive Line Comparisons:

TEAM	OFFENSIVE LINE	DEFENSIVE LINE
Michigan State	6-5, 294	6-2, 274
Michigan	6-6, 287	6-4, 266

What You Need To Know: Five weeks ago, if you had said one of these teams was going to be 1-3, and one of these teams was going to be 4-0, not too many people would have said that MSU would be the team with three losses.  And yet, that’s where we find ourselves.  Big Ten championship dreams have had to be recalibrated.  The MSU defense that was supposed to be so good, well, hasn’t been.  The quarterback competition that would last a few games into the season still hasn’t come to an end (although it should have been over after the Notre Dame game).

It’s been a relatively quiet lead up to the game this year.  Sure, there were comments made by the MSU players earlier this week.  Rocco said something about “everyone has a hatred for Michigan.”  Cousins said something about “We want to win. We have to win,” or something to that effect.  But it wasn’t Little Brother.  It wasn’t Pride Comes Before the Fall.  It wasn’t anything that someone is going to look back to after the game and really try to draw something out of it.

***more after the jump***

In part, it probably has to do with the fact that, well, we’re 1-3, and that Michigan knows they’re probably not as good as that #22 ranking looks.  Credit to RichRod, his players were pretty damn quiet this week.  Probably not a bad decision.  Letting Indiana hang 33 points on you sends a pretty clear message that you’re really not a legitimate contender for the Big Ten championship when you still have to play at Iowa, vs. Ohio State and vs. Penn State.

When MSU is on Offense: Apparently I’m not the only one with a hunch that Keith Nichol will start the game against Michigan.  I’d made it pretty clear so far this season that I feel Captain Kirk should be the starter, but I’ll admit that I’m not entirely opposed to seeing Nichol start this one (as I mentioned in my interview with Ace at The Wolverine Blog).

Here’s the thing: as much as I want Dantonio to come out in a Tuesday morning press conference and say to the media “it’s been a great competition, and both guys played tremendously hard, the coaching staff has come to the decision that Kirk Cousins is going to be our number one guy,” it’s just not going to happen any time soon.  Seriously, if he hasn’t come to a decision after four games, when will he?  We’re almost half way through the season.

So if we’re not going to get a guy named as the number one, and we are 1-3 right now, why the hell not try something new?  What’s it going to hurt (besides potential distain from players in the locker room, being a terrible blow to Kirk Cousins’ confidence, it plain old not working and Nichol throws a pick on his second play of the game…)?

Let’s start with a little good news.  The good news is that despite falling to Wisconsin 38-30 last Saturday (in a game that was not really that close), Michigan State was still able to put up nearly 400 yards through the air.  We still have the most potent pass offense in the conference, averaging 320 yards per game.  Even if you take the late 91-yard pass to Keyshawn Martin during garbage time out of the equation, MSU still leads the conference.  That being said, despite putting up quite a few yards, it wasn’t a great passing performance by either quarterback in terms of getting the ball into the endzone and keeping it out of the hands of the defense, and the passing game is going to need to be sharper if we want to win this game.

Glenn Winston had a solid game against the Badgers, putting up 52 yards on 9 carries.  Dantonio indicated that Winston would get more carries against Michigan, which is a positive sign not only that we might be getting more stability in the running game, but also that Dantonio has made a decision about a position unit competition.  The Michigan run defense has not been good, and gave up an average of 176 yards the last three games against Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan and Indiana (surprisingly, Notre Dame had the fewest rushing yards of those three).

The passing defense of Michigan hasn’t been much better, ranking 8th in the conference and giving up 243 yards per game.  In fairness, they’ve played some pretty tough passing teams.  They gave up 263 yards to Western Michigan (#22 pass offense nationally), 336 yards to Notre Dame (#14 nationally), and 270 yards to Indiana (the weakest of the bunch at #46 nationally).  Still, MSU has been a pretty tough passing team.

When MSU is on Defense: If you haven’t heard yet, Michigan’s running game is pretty good.  They are averaging 240 yards per game, good for 8th best in the country.  They have four guys who can run the ball and run it well.  Carlos Brown is averaging 8.4 yards per carry.  The scary part?  It’s that he’s carried the ball 38 times.  He has more touches than anyone else on the Wolverine’s roster.  Next up, quarterback Denard Robinson.  If Denard is in the game, there’s a 72% chance he’s running the ball.  He’s putting up 6 yards per carry with three rushing TDs.  Brandon Minor and Tate Forcier can also run the football well.

At quarterback, Tate Forcier has been the guy, with Denard Robinson cycling in.  The tendency so far has been to have Denard come in midway through the second quarter.  When he comes in, he doesn’t necessarily play the entire drive, occasionally he runs a few plays and then Forcier comes back in.  So if you see Denard on the field, don’t be surprised if he plays a few snaps and then switches out for Forcier.  Forcier’s passing numbers are decent (167 yards per game, 12 yards per catch, 7 TDs, 2 INTs), but the guy has been clutch so far, leading late game-winning drives against Notre Dame and Indiana.

The critical thing here though is Forcier’s injured-or-not-injured shoulder.  RichRod says Tate is fine and will play Saturday.  Rumors are that Forcier had his arm in a sling.  The truth lies somewhere in between.  Or maybe in a YouTube video?

I’m not sure how healthy this guy really is.  What I do know is that Michigan is in a lot of trouble if Forcier gets hit and can’t play, and they need to put Denard Robinson or Nick Sheridan into the game (yes, that Sheridan guy is still around apparently).

Turnovers were critical in the Wisconsin game, as the Badgers put up 21 points off of MSU turnovers.  Mistakes like that must be minimized if MSU wants to be competitive in this game.  MSU is -3 in turnover margin, Michigan is +1.  Moreover, MSU has created fewer opponent turnovers than any other team in the conference.  Not many people have been talking about that, but we have to find a way to get the ball out of the hands of the Michigan offense.

We all know the story of the MSU defense.  It’s not good.  We know it’s not good.  They know it’s not good.  But are we really, really sure that Michigan State’s defense isn’t less bad than Michigan’s defense?  I don’t necessarily think we have the answer to that yet.

Start trash talking if: Forcier gets hit early in the game and has to come out of the game.  That’s not to say the UM offense becomes totally ineffective without Forcier, but it certainly becomes one dimensional.  If Cousins (or perhaps Nichol) can get the offense rolling early, it should be a good sign.  Also, keep an eye on the running game.  Winston could be shaping up to have a breakout game, which would help our offense tremendously.

Scream in horror if: Forcier is in fact very healthy and the rain comes.  Rain would mean both teams are going to have to run the football, and I know at least one team that has run the football exceptionally well so far this season.  The other, well, hasn’t (psst…that’s us).  If the MSU passing game looks as lackluster as it did against Wisconsin, it could turn into a blowout very early on.

The Last Word: At the beginning of the week, I was surprised that MSU was favored by two points against Michigan.  I figured for sure we would be 7-point underdogs.  But now, I get it.  The Michigan defense is very suspect.  The offense is explosive, but the MSU offense matches up well against the Wolverine defense.  The health of Forcier’s shoulder could be a determining factor in this game (good for MSU).  So could the rain, as it may require both teams tend toward runnings the football (good for Michigan).  There’s so many different things going on in this game, it’s tough to even say if this game will be close.  It could, but I can also see it go big for either team.  In the end, I’m going 34-28 Michigan State.

Update: I erroneously said that Michigan played Ohio State in Columbus.  They play in Ann Arbor this year (thanks Matt for the catch).

Related posts:

1. Know Thy Enemy – Central Michigan
2. Across Enemy Lines – A Few Questions for The Wolverine Blog