Northwestern at Michigan State
Northwestern record: 4-2 (1-1 Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs. Miami (OH) 16-6
Record vs. MSU: MSU leads the series 33-16. MSU is 17-7 at home against the Wildcats
Game Time: Noon
Conference: Big Ten
TV/Radio: ESPN2
Weather: Partly cloudy with wind, high of 45 degrees, but will only be in the 30s for tailgate. Might be time to bring out the Under Armor and long underwear.
Line: Michigan State favored by 12
What You Need To Know: If you are susceptible to flashbacks of the John L. days, this game is at least mildly terrifying.
The Spartans are coming off a key win against the Illini that brought the team to 3-3 on the season. The win over the Illini puts MSU at 2-1 in the conference, still very much in the hunt for the Big Ten title. So, you know, things are looking up. But the Iowa Hawkeyes come to town next weekend, undefeated and with the inside track on the Big Ten, so it’s a possibility the team could be looking ahead to the Iowa game.
Plus, it’s homecoming, so there’s a lot of emotion and excitement running through East Lansing this weekend. Last time Northwestern was in town for a homecoming game (in 2005), they dominated the Spartans 49-14. On their last visit to East Lansing in 2007 (not homecoming FYI), they won in an overtime thriller 48-41. Then consider the 2006 game when Michigan State was down 38-3 with a quarter and a half to play in the game, when they rallied for the biggest comeback victory in Division I history, rattling off 5 straight touchdowns and a field goal with :13 left in the game to win 41-38.
You get the point, it’s been a wild ride against the Wildcats the last few years.
When MSU is on Offense: As we start the second half of the season, we know MSU is going to try to use the run to open up the pass. Only this week, we will be without our starting running back Glenn Winston, who emerged in the Wisconsin game. Still, when we look at the stats between the two top tailbacks so far this season, we see that Larry Caper has been stronger statistically:
- Larry Caper: 60 attempts, 275 yards, 4.58 ypc, 5 TDs
- Glenn Winston: 60 attempts, 204 yards, 3.40 ypc, 2 TDs
Make no doubt about it though, the loss of Winston is significant. He was our leading kick returner through the first six games. Keshawn Martin will now likely take over those duties. At the running back spot, Larry Caper will now likely get the lion’s share of the carries. However, don’t expect him to go it alone, much like Javon Ringer did last year. Instead, we’ll see Caulton Ray come back into the mix, and we could potentially see Edwin Baker lose his redshirt to contribute if needed. Caper has had a tendency to drop the football. To be fair, he also ran like a champion in overtime against Michigan. So, I guess he gets a pass.
The MSU rushing offense has improved over the last two games, putting up over 190 yards against Michigan and Illinois after averaging just 98 yards per game on the ground in the previous three games. Still, Michigan and Illinois are the 8th and 11th ranked rush defenses in the conference, not exactly stellar. Northwestern, meanwhile, brings the #4 rushing D to East Lansing. Finally having a solidified offensive line should help things out.
We still have the top passing offense in the conference, putting up 280 yards per game. Northwestern has the #6 passing defense in the conference, giving up 135 yards against Minnesota and 186 yards versus Purdue. The Northwestern secondary is probably their most effective defensive unit, and could create a lot of problems (and interceptions) on Saturday.
When MSU is on Defense: This is the first time in, geez, forever? that Northwestern doesn’t have a solid running back. They are 9th in the conference in rushing offense, with freshman running back Arby Fields leading the Wildcats with 190 yards 4 TDs. Expect quarterback Mike Kafka to take off running the ball fairly often, as he averages about 11 carries per game. The MSU defense has done a good job shutting down the run, especially with running quarterbacks from Michigan and Illinois. This should be a favorable matchup for the Spartans.
Without a doubt though, this is a much better passing offense than rushing offense. Northwestern averages 260 yards per game, good for 3rd in the Big Ten. Kafka is the second best passing quarterback averaging 244 yards per game, second to Purdue’s Joey Elliott. Michigan State has the 9th ranked pass defense in the conference, but has steadily improved the last two games against fairly weak passing opponents in Michigan and Illinois. Still, this matchup makes me very nervous.
Start trash talking if: We’re kicking a field goal to win the game with less than a minute to go. Actually, to be safe, let’s call it less than :10 to go.
Scream in horror if: Kafka is able to completely pick apart the secondary. Or if Kirk Cousins gets hurt and can’t play, and Nichol isn’t ready to go, and Maxwell gets playing time (oh God, please no). If the running game looks completely lost without Glenn Winston.
The Last Word: This game concerns me. It’s easy to look at Northwestern and say they really haven’t played any decent teams, and perhaps that’s true. But their passing game is matched up to exploit our secondary, although our pass rush should help with that. And their defense is matched up well to stop our passing game. I’m not at the point where I’m not going to pick MSU, but the Wildcats will cover the spread. I say MSU wins 27-24.
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