Know Thy Enemy – Notre Dame

Notre Dame record: 1-1
Last Game: Lost to Michigan 38-34
Record vs. MSU: 27-44-1, last beat MSU 37-40 in 2006 in the Battle of the Charlie Weis Typhoon.
Game Time: 3:30 PM
Conference: Independent

TV/Radio: NBC
Weather: Sunny, high 70 degrees
Line: Michigan State +10 1/2

Offensive Starters: 4 Seniors, 4 Juniors, 3 Sophomores
Defensive Starters: 3 Seniors, 4 Juniors, 4 Sophomores

Top Returning Players – Statistics:

Offensive/Defensive Line Comparisons:

What You Need To Know: Both teams are coming off very tough losses of two very different varieties.

MSU is coming off of one of those panic inducing (although the panic is, perhaps, a bit premature), bury your head in the sand, everyone jump off the bandwagon type losses you get when you fall to a team that everyone thinks you should have beaten.  Despite the fact that, you know, LeFevour has been touted by more than one or two people as the best college quarterback in the state of Michigan right now.  And Central Michigan has looked as good as any team in the MAC, in a conference that has turned out a few quarterbacks that went on to the NFL and have done pretty well (paging Mr. Roethlisberger).

Still, it’s a tough loss.  As much as I would like to employ the defense that we had the very same record this time last year, it’s hard to deny that Cal was a superior team to Central Michigan when we consider that CMU got shut down by a relatively unremarkable Arizona team (unless of course they beat Iowa by half-a-hundred this weekend in which case all bets are off).

Notre Dame, on the other hand, lost an intense rivalry game in the final seconds to a team they knew was going to be competitive.  Unlike Michigan State, the loss for Notre Dame is more than a notch in the L column, it turns up the heat on an already toast seat for head coach Charlie Weis (or, head intern, if you prefer).

Any way you slice it, this Saturday’s game between Michigan State and Notre Dame will be considered by many to be a must-win.  MSU needs to show that the Central Michigan game was merely an aberration, the kick in the pants they need to get knocked off their high horse and get tough.  Notre Dame wants to show that they can actually win a game against MSU in South Bend this decade, while Charlie Weis would like to show that he’s worth keeping around (which of course, he isn’t).

When MSU is on Offense

Expect Kirk Cousins to start.  He has showed that he is a leader of this team and his play on the field has been superior to Nichol.  Keith Nichol did not see the field in the second half, as the coaches didn’t want to risk getting the quarterback out of rhythm in a close game.  Fair enough.  How telling is this?  It’s tough to say.  On one hand, you can say that the coaches just wanted to ensure some rhythm, so they stuck with Cousins.  On the other hand, maybe you say that it’s a telling decision that they were more comfortable in Cousins than Nichol.  At the end of the day, you have to put the guy out there that’s going to give you the best chance to win, and the coaches felt that Cousins was that guy.

The only way I don’t see Cousins starting this game is because it’s so damn obvious that he is going to start.  Let’s say that the coaches really truly do feel that both of these guys are still 1a and 1b, then maybe you trot Nichol out there because 1) Notre Dame clearly won’t be expecting it, and 2) there isn’t nearly as much game film of Nichol as there is of Cousins, so you’re putting more of an unknown quantity on the field for the Irish defense.  Plus, Notre Dame loves the blitz like Charlie Weis loves some all-you-can-eat at the Sizzler.  The offensive line is less than stellar, so having a mobile quarterback wouldn’t be the worst decision in the world.

But in my mind, Cousins has shown that he is the guy.  He has been clutch in the fourth quarter, throwing for a 90% completion rating and scoring 2 TDs.  Cousins has been effective, as proven by his conference-leading passer rating (186.7).  Let him lead until he isn’t effective, then consider going with Nichol.

The rushing in this game appears to be a wash.  Sure, MSU’s offensive line has been unable to consistently open holes for the backs, although you wouldn’t know looking at the stats with State averaging 3.9 yards per carry.  Notre Dame’s run defense, meanwhile, is giving up 5.1 per carry (and it’s not just because Michigan ran all over them, in fact Michigan averaged 5 YPC while Nevada averaged 5.28).  Caulton Ray and Larry Caper have appeared to separate themselves from the field, and it would behoof the Spartans to go with those two guys.  Much has been said about the quarterbacks not getting in rhythm (esp. Nichol going 3-and-out on his first drive against CMU), but the same appears to be happening with the running backs.

State needs to be able to run the ball at the end of games, something they haven’t shown they can do.  MSU averages 4.58 YPC in the first three quarters of the game, but that average drops to 1.82 in the fourth quarter.  The ability to run the ball correlates to opening up the passing game, and if the game is close at the end we need to have a credible threat of running the ball to allow the quarterback to see more opportunities with the receivers.

Speaking of passing, the Notre Dame passing defense has been pretty solid thus far, giving up 197 yards per game.  For some reason, Notre Dame is awful defending the pass in the 1st and 3rd quarters, with opponents completing 88.9% and 76.9% of passes respectively.  Contrary to the popular dogma of establishing the run to open up the pass, it may make sense to come out slinging the ball to open up an early lead.

When MSU is on Defense

Notre Dame runs a pro style offense that should be more suited for our defense to handle.  The Irish play calling has been pretty balanced so far, skewing just slightly toward the run (53% vs. 47% for pass plays), and is run-pass balanced pretty much throughout the game (rushing plays by quarter: 1st – 53%, 2nd – 56%, 3rd – 45%, 4th – 54%).

Third-year quarterback Jimmy Clausen is 40-60 passing so far this year, throwing for 7 TDs and no interceptions, and averaging 325 yards per game.  MSU has had difficult bringing the pass rush effectively, and LeFevour was able to pick apart the secondary by throwing to players in the flats and on short-yardage passes to keep moving the chains.  Again, if MSU cannot get pressure to Clausen, he is going to play pitch-and-catch and it’s going to be another long day for the secondary.

Receivers Golden Tate and Michael Floyd return after leading the Irish in receiving yards last year.  Floyd is averaging 160 yards per game, and Tate is averaging 87.  But Floyd cut his knee on the track at Michigan Stadium last week, requiring 15 stitches.  He has been practicing, except for drills that required him to fall to the ground.  If for some reason Floyd isn’t able to play on Saturday, we could have a shot of at least slowing down the passing attack.  But if Floyd plays, that’s going to be a lot for our defense to stop.

Armando Allen leads the Irish rushing attack, averaging 105 yards per game and 5.86 yards per carry.  We really have not seen a strong running team yet, as both Montana State and Central Michigan use more of a spread attack that get the ball to players horizontally in space, allowing them to make a move to get upfield (in the case of CMU, with frustratingly good success).  Notre Dame will be the first true test of how good (or bad) the Spartan rushing defense really is.

Start trash talking if: Similar to last week, if MSU is able to get pressure and disrupt the rhythm of the passing game, and the rushing defense is actually pretty good, MSU could gain early control of the game.  Offensively, if the Spartan running game is able to materialize, it should open up opportunities to throw down field and jump out to an early lead.  After last week, let’s save any trash talking until the game ends, shall we?

Scream in horror if: Clausen is able to pick apart a defense that is yet again giving waaaay too much cushion to the receivers while Armando Allen continues to rush for at least five yards per carry.  Additionally, if MSU is unable to establish any sort of run, while the ND defense continues to get to the quarterback, it will be nearly impossible for MSU to move the ball down the field consistently.

The Last Word: The line for this game is 10 1/2, and that’s about where I see this one ending up.  As much as I would like to see MSU win this one, I called it for ND before the season started, and I am compelled to keep that prediction here today.  MSU has won the last six games in South Bend, but streaks are made to end.  If MSU walks out and only loses by a touchdown, I think that could be a decent sign.  But if they lose by more than 10, well, let’s not talk about that unless we have to. ND wins, 24-17.

Related posts:

1. What to Watch for Against Notre Dame Today
2. Know Thy Enemy – Central Michigan