Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin record: 3-0
Last Game: Defeated Wofford 44-14
Record vs. MSU: Michigan State leads the seriers 27-20, and MSU leads at Madison 13-12
Game Time: Noon (remember that’s 11AM Central if you’re going to the game)
Conference: Big Freaking Ten
TV/Radio: ESPN (if someone can explain how this game gets on ESPN, but the U-M / MSU game is on Big Ten Network, that would be great)
Weather: Thundershowers, high of 66 degrees
Line: Michigan State 3-point dogs to the Badgers
Offensive Starters: 1 senior, 6 juniors, 3 sophomores, 1 freshman
Defensive Starters: 5 seniors, 2 juniors, 3 sophomores, 1 freshman
Stat Leaders:
| Rushing | Att. | Yds. | Avg. | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Clay | 48 | 256 | 5.33 | 3 |
| Passing | Att. | Comp. | Pct. | Yds. | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Tolzein | 68 | 47 | 69.1 | 641 | 4 | 2 |
| Receiving | Rec. | Yds. | Avg. | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Toon | 15 | 191 | 12.7 | 1 |
| Tackles | UT | AT | TOT | TFL-YDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaevery McFadden | 15 | 11 | 26 | 3-14 |
Offensive/Defensive Line Comparisons:
| Team | Offensive Line | Defensive Line |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | 6-6, 292 | 6-2, 274 |
| Wisconsin | 6-5, 298 | 6-4, 282 |
What You Need To Know: I’m not a huge fan of the term “must-win” because it’s such a generalized statement. So instead, let’s just call this a bellwether game, for obvious reasons. It’s the kickoff to the Big Ten season, which is like a whole new season because when you’re 1-2, that’s just how you gotta spin it. Hey, if the shoe fits…
Last year Wisconsin did everything they could do snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (where have I heard that before?) The Badgers were leading the game by 11 points with 9:19 left in the fourth, when uber-meltdown ensued. Wisconsin was called for a delay of game penalty, then coach Bret Bielema (what’s up the the single “t” Bret?) got an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for apparently saying some not-so-nice things about the referee’s mother. Michigan State would then drive 64-yards for a touchdown (two-point conversion was no good).
After holding Wisconsin to a three-and-out, Brett “Ice Man” Swenson was able to kick a 50-yard field goal to bring the Spartans within two points.
Wisconsin had the chance to seal the victory, but penalties resulted in yet another punt. Michigan State got the ball back with 1:19 to go, and Hoyer connected with Blair White twice to get the Spartans down to the 27-yard line for a 44-yard field goal try. And the rest is, how do they say, historical…
(Sure, you can’t make out the kick, but the yelling is ear-piercing freaking awesome!)
Wisconsin is 3-0 going into the game on Saturday, although I’m not sure we’ve learned all that much about this team. They were taken to overtime by Fresno State, and only beat Northern Illinois by eight points after letting the Huskies score two TDs in the last nine minutes of the game. The last two meetings between MSU and Wisconsin have been close, with MSU winning last year 25-24, and Wisconsin winning 37-34 in 2007.
When MSU is on Offense: For 59 minutes last week, Kirk Cousins had a career game, passing for 302 yards and completing over 65% of his throws. Cousins has the highest QB rating in the conference, and has shown an ability to hit receivers with a lot of accuracy. Sure, his youth led to a bad decision against Notre Dame, but his response to the situation has been well documented and is pretty damn impressive.
Wisconsin’s passing defense stats have looked good so far, although their competition hasn’t been what you would call best-of-breed. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are the #58 and #100 passing offenses respectively. Michigan State, on the other hand, has the best passing offense in the conference and the #14 passing offense nationally. The Badgers are 31st in the nation in pass defense, averaging 169 yards against in the last three games. It’s close, but I see Michigan State winning this matchup. Cousins has shown an accuracy and poise throwing the ball that frankly kept us in the game against Notre Dame
It’s no secret that the running game has been lacking, as the Spartans have barely eclipsed 100 yards on the ground in the last two games and are ranked 10th in the conference in rushing. Caulton Ray and Larry Caper have established themselves as team’s top two running backs. Both are averaging ~4.7 yards per carry. MLive is making the argument that Edwin Baker may redshirt as a result of being out the last two games because of a sore knee. From MLive:
If Baker does end up redshirting, it will be a blow to a Spartan running game that is still searching for an identity. If healthy, he would have provided the homerun threat that is currently missing from this offense.
Umm, I guess? Since, you know, his eight attempts for 27 yards with a long run of seven yards is the identity this team has been looking for.
Wisconsin has held their opposition to 164 rushing yards per game so far this season. They are coming off a game against Wofford where they gave up 214 yards on the ground, but Wofford wasn’t exactly running what you would call a balanced playbook, as then ran the ball 55 times but passed only seven. So despite 214 yards on the ground, Wofford only averaged 3.9 yards per carry. I’m giving the advantage to Wisconsin on this one.
When MSU is on Defense: Wisconsin is in the middle of the pack in total offense, averaging 425 yards per game, good for 4th in the conference. The Badgers are putting up almost 200 yards per game and averaging 5 yards per rush. John Clay is the number one rusher, putting up 85 yards per game. But Clay fumbled the ball three times last weekend against Wofford. He lit up Michigan State last year for 111 yards and nearly 8 yards per carry.
So far, the Spartan rush defense has been able to hold it’s own. MSU is 4th in the conference in rushing defense, holding opponents to 87 yards per game. I see this match as a push. If Wisconsin is able to open up the run game, it will put added pressure on a pass defense that really doesn’t need any more pressure put on it.
Wisconsin’s passing game hasn’t been quite as good, averaging 226 yards per game, good for eighth in the conference. Hopefully it will be a welcome reprieve for the Michigan State secondary, as the passing defense is 9th in the conference. Quarterback Scott Tolzien is completing 69% of his throws, throwing 4 TDs and 2 interceptions. Nick Toon, the Badgers leading receiver, averages 63 yards per game. Again, not a huge mismatch here. It will be a battle of the lesser evils in the passing game on Saturday.
Start trash talking if: Michigan State is able to run the ball. I’m confident that the passing game will be clicking as it has so far this year. If the Spartans have both elements of the offense firing on all cylinders, the Spartans will be tough to beat.
Scream in horror if: The MSU passing game doesn’t play like it did against Notre Dame. I think Wisconsin will pretty much be able to shut down the run, so it’s going to put more pressure on the passing game. Wisconsin’s pass defense stats look decent, but I think they’re misleading simply due to the competition they’ve played. If they’re not, we could be in trouble.
The Last Word: Michigan State wins, 34-24. I’m guessing that it’s close for pretty much all of the game, with MSU scoring a late touchdown to seal the deal.
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