Who’s got the toughest schedule in the Big Ten? Obviously, it depends how you look at it.
The official NCAA toughest schedule ranking is determined by looking at a team’s opponents performance from the previous season. Thus, it doesn’t take into account graduating players/players leaving early, coaching changes, etc. It also doesn’t take into account the level of competition that the opposing teams played. So a team like Utah, which went 13-0 last season, would be considered a more difficult opponent in the coming season compared to a team such as Penn State, which went 11-2.
Using this model, we ranked the each of the Big Ten teams based on opposing team winning percentage for their upcoming home and away games.
| Team | Opp Win % (Home) | Opp Win % (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 55.7% | 65.6% |
| Iowa | 58.4% | 60.9% |
| Michigan | 52.5% | 58.8% |
| Indiana | 58.0% | 58.7% |
| Wisconsin | 53.4% | 55.4% |
| Illinois | 58.4% | 54.7% |
| Penn State | 47.5% | 52.0% |
| Northwestern | 41.4% | 48.4% |
| Michigan State | 62.9% | 47.6% |
| Purdue | 55.1% | 47.6% |
| Ohio State | 57.3% | 39.3% |
A higher opposing win percentage for road games indicates a more difficult schedule. The same principle holds true for home games, but with slightly less effect. In this case, Minnesota would have the most difficult road schedule in the Big Ten this season, but only the 6th most difficult home schedule in the conference. Iowa has both the second most difficult home and road schedule, and has arguably the toughest overall schedule in the conference.
Michigan State has the most difficult home schedule in the conference, where opponents won 62% of their games last season. Frankly, I was surprised that MSU has the toughest home schedule in the Big Ten, since my gut reaction when I first looked at the 2009 schedule was that we weren’t facing a whole bunch of great teams at home. Yet not a single team MSU faces at home this season won fewer than 7 games last year:
| Opponent | |
|---|---|
| Montana State | 7 |
| Central Michigan | 8 |
| Michigan | 3 |
| Northwestern | 9 |
| Iowa | 9 |
| Western Michigan | 9 |
| Penn State | 11 |
It’s a different story for the road opponents. MSU is tied with Purdue having the second easiest road schedule, with road opponents having a combined 47% winning percentage.
| Opponent | 2008 Wins |
|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 7 |
| Wisconsin | 7 |
| Illinois | 5 |
| Minnesota | 7 |
| Purdue | 4 |
Phil Steele computes a toughest schedule ranking annually, but makes an effort to create a more accurate ranking by taking into account each teams power rankings when determining his ranking instead of winning percentage.
| Phil Steele's Rankings |
|---|
| Minnesota |
| Michigan State |
| Iowa |
| Michigan |
| Indiana |
| Purdue |
| Ohio State |
| Illinois |
| Wisconsin |
| Penn State |
| Northwestern |
While he has Minnesota atop the Big Ten schools for toughest schedule, he has Michigan State as having the second toughest schedule in the conference and 10th toughest schedule in the country.
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